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falls off the fiscal cliff next week. >>> investors are bracing for the final eurozone bond sale of the year. italy will sell up to 6 billion later today. >> and the yen has been sent lower and stocks to their highest level in 21 months. >>> this is the final "worldwide exchange" from london of the year. louisa is here for it. >> i can't believe it. it's my last working day of the year, as well. >> is it? >> yes. >> unfortunately we'll still be talking about the same thing we're talking about now. >> although i feel we'll be talking more debt ceiling, as well. >> and speaking of which, president obama is trying a last ditch effort to restart budget talks days before the u.s. goes over the fiscal cliff. speaker john boehner has called the house back into session sunday evening. house majority leader eric cantor is telling his members to be prepared to work through january 2nd. both sides are still far apart on taxes and spending cuts. harry reid says prospect deals by monday are unlikely. minority leader mitch mcconnell says there's still time for an agreement. >> republicans aren't like
falls off the fiscal cliff next week. >>> investors are bracing for the final eurozone bond sale of the year. italy will sell up to 6 billion later today. >> and the yen has been sent lower and stocks to their highest level in 21 months. >>> this is the final "worldwide exchange" from london of the year. louisa is here for it. >> i can't believe it. it's my last working day of the year, as well. >> is it? >> yes. >> unfortunately we'll...
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cliff, then the next debate is the debt ceiling debate. how. >> it is very contentious. the president is right, we shouldn't play that game. up until last year we never did play that game. that is essentially butting a g put /* putting a gun to the head of the economy. we can't hold the nation hostage every time we go through this. i think we do need a longer term deal that agreeses the structural problems. >> congressman, we will let you get back to work. >> sue, tense times for many. down here on floor of the nyse, taking a break to remember some of the traditions here on the floor on new year's eve. let's get over it mary thompson. >> hey, simon, before we do, a quick market update. popping an retreating after the announcement of the statement president obama will make at 1:30. can you vietnam action in the dow industrials. caterpillar and ge suggesting return. the indication moving to session lows today. these are the groups where the enclave right now. now, i will turn it over to jim and the rest of the traders here on the floor of th
cliff, then the next debate is the debt ceiling debate. how. >> it is very contentious. the president is right, we shouldn't play that game. up until last year we never did play that game. that is essentially butting a g put /* putting a gun to the head of the economy. we can't hold the nation hostage every time we go through this. i think we do need a longer term deal that agreeses the structural problems. >> congressman, we will let you get back to work. >> sue, tense times...
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if the fiscal cliff is fixed, then have a very strong first half and back half of next year. if it doesn't, we will have a situation that we see at christmas where low sales will not translate to mixed earnings. they will see a lot of margin improvements and upside from there. >> all right. we will leave it there. thank you. i appreciate your time. have a great holiday. >> thank you. >>> up next, hollywood is eyeing what could be the best for the box office ever. pushing towards the finish line is the hobbit. we will find out if the movie momentum should have a starring role in your 2013 portfolio and it could be the moment expensive christmas dinner in history. but why is no one buying? we have details including the $60,000 bottle of champagne. stay with us. >>> there aren't as many films as there used to be. holiday's take is down this year, according to the street.com. but there have been memorable holiday releases in the past. what are the three biggest christmas block busters of all time? find out next. a body at rest tends to stay at rest... while a body in motion tends
if the fiscal cliff is fixed, then have a very strong first half and back half of next year. if it doesn't, we will have a situation that we see at christmas where low sales will not translate to mixed earnings. they will see a lot of margin improvements and upside from there. >> all right. we will leave it there. thank you. i appreciate your time. have a great holiday. >> thank you. >>> up next, hollywood is eyeing what could be the best for the box office ever. pushing...
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the markets may be hanging off the fiscal cliff, causing investors to take cover until caller waters prepail. we want to know which stock you are betting on for high risk high reward in 2013. let's be clear, this is money that you're willing to lose. this is a lottery ticket play. this is, if you have to take a flyer on any stock in 2013, what would it be and we asked our traders, so, doc jay? >> scientific games. sgms. if mobile gaming, if you start walking around with one of these and you can play all manner of gaming, video poker, slot machine, all that sort of thing, these guys make that kind of technology work. that's why i like sgms. it was north of $40 five years ago. it's cheaper than going to see "les mis" though anthony's daughter is in it. >> correct. i've seen it three times. >> gets better each time, right? >> better each time and i caught the seconds she's in it. go amelia. >> steve weiss, similar rationale. you picked a stock that is in the -- >> toilet. >> yes. thank you for saying that. >> nihd. and here's the story with it. it's cheap. only four times enterprise val
the markets may be hanging off the fiscal cliff, causing investors to take cover until caller waters prepail. we want to know which stock you are betting on for high risk high reward in 2013. let's be clear, this is money that you're willing to lose. this is a lottery ticket play. this is, if you have to take a flyer on any stock in 2013, what would it be and we asked our traders, so, doc jay? >> scientific games. sgms. if mobile gaming, if you start walking around with one of these and...
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cliff, consumers think next year we'll see higher taxes and lower entitlements. the only place in our space where we see a very significant fiscal cliff hit is aspirational customer, so the step-up customer into low-end tiffany's jewelry, for example, we just don't think they showed up this year. >> even if people, stacy, are going to be hit by higher taxes next year, at least some people are going to be hit by higher taxes next year, a lot of this is psychological, isn't it. you turn on the tv and you're feeling spooked, right? and once we have a deal or resolution, uncertainty taken away, will people unleash their spending? will this be unlocked? >> i think at the high end, yes, there will be some relief, and, you know, to laura's point, we were in tiffany over the weekend, you would be shocked how much sales help was available on the silver floor. typically you can't get near a sales person there. >> right. >> but a lot of it is psychological, but then again, christmas has come and gone and the full-margin products have come and gone. you fix the fiscal cliff
cliff, consumers think next year we'll see higher taxes and lower entitlements. the only place in our space where we see a very significant fiscal cliff hit is aspirational customer, so the step-up customer into low-end tiffany's jewelry, for example, we just don't think they showed up this year. >> even if people, stacy, are going to be hit by higher taxes next year, at least some people are going to be hit by higher taxes next year, a lot of this is psychological, isn't it. you turn on...
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crosses the fiscal cliff. joining us now on set, eric dinallo e, the former new york state insurance superintendent. you have lots of deficit perspectives on this, perhaps from the insurance sort of angle. you were saying during the commercial break, you have a political view on this as well. >> i'm now convinced, this is very very cynical. it's easier for politicians who signed up on that pledge, they can go to their voters and say i didn't vote for a tax increase, i voted for a tax increase. if they go in over the cliff, it comes in automatically. >> the public is that dumb in 2014 people running campaign commercials? >> the headlines are simple, did not vote for a tax hike, tax increase and people couldn't get their house in order and that's the story and how simple sometimes politics are what you can say with a straight face versus not. >> you were here three or four weeks ago talking about insurance implications for insurance companies. and where we are now, insurance companies, will this change their bus
crosses the fiscal cliff. joining us now on set, eric dinallo e, the former new york state insurance superintendent. you have lots of deficit perspectives on this, perhaps from the insurance sort of angle. you were saying during the commercial break, you have a political view on this as well. >> i'm now convinced, this is very very cynical. it's easier for politicians who signed up on that pledge, they can go to their voters and say i didn't vote for a tax increase, i voted for a tax...
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so it really is up to the government to do better and to resolve this fiscal cliff. in terms of who the next fed chairman's going to be, we don't have a sense on that. we think bernanke has done a masterful job, and we really do like him in this position. >> david katz, thank you very much for your time. >> thanks a lot. >>> that wraps up this special boxing day edition of "worldwide exchange." i'm seema mody. >> i'm jackie deangelis. it was great to be here with you this morning. don't forget to tune in to cnbc.com every tuesday and thursday at 1:00 p.m. eastern for my show, "futures now." "squawk box" is up next. >> have a great morning. [ male announcer ] it's that time of year again. time for citi price rewind. because your daughter really wants that pink castle thing. and you really don't want to pay more than you have to. only citi price rewind automatically searches for the lowest price. and if it finds one, you get refunded the difference. just use your citi card and register your purchase online. have a super sparkly day! ok. [ male announcer ] now all you n
so it really is up to the government to do better and to resolve this fiscal cliff. in terms of who the next fed chairman's going to be, we don't have a sense on that. we think bernanke has done a masterful job, and we really do like him in this position. >> david katz, thank you very much for your time. >> thanks a lot. >>> that wraps up this special boxing day edition of "worldwide exchange." i'm seema mody. >> i'm jackie deangelis. it was great to be here...
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looks good. >> thank you carl. >> see you next time. >>> financials and the fiscal cliff. what is next for the big bank trade after a big run up in 2012? we have sanford bernstein's brad hintz to weigh in. first rick santelli always clean shaven is joining us next working on something for a little later on. >> we have jeff carter. we're going to talk about the fiscal cliff but from a much more cynical perspective. he believes that the cbo's call, if we go over the cliff in recession, well, he doesn't believe him. he says there is a keynesian base. what does it mean? he too cynical? i don't know. tune in in about 11 minutes to find out. >>> financials and the fiscal cliff plus the looming february stress tests is the big bank runup of this year finally coming to a close? brad hintz is an equity research analyst and joins us from new york. good to see. good morning. >> thanks for having me. >> new year is going to be fascinating to watch. dodd frank implementation. let's just talk about the rules first. investors know these are coming and why are the stocks trading up in lig
looks good. >> thank you carl. >> see you next time. >>> financials and the fiscal cliff. what is next for the big bank trade after a big run up in 2012? we have sanford bernstein's brad hintz to weigh in. first rick santelli always clean shaven is joining us next working on something for a little later on. >> we have jeff carter. we're going to talk about the fiscal cliff but from a much more cynical perspective. he believes that the cbo's call, if we go over the...
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but can any progress be made on the fiscal cliff? doubt it, but we'll see next. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm kelly evans. ross westgate is away. these are your headlines from around the world. president obama and congress return to work today with little progress seen on the deal to avoid the fiscal cliff while the government starts taking steps to buy more time before the u.s. hits the debt ceiling. the yen hits a two-year low against the dollar as the new japanese government vows to battle deflation and weaken the currency. export stocks rise pushing the nikkei towards it's strongest gain in seven years. and toyota moves higher after the car dealer settles a class action lawsuit. analysts say the $1 billion payment is already priced in. >> it was a pretty quiet trading session in the u.s. yesterday. retail stocks were one of the market's worst performers. we were just discussing the outlook for holiday sales coming in weaker than first expect. today, trying to cover some of those losses. similar small gains seen fo
but can any progress be made on the fiscal cliff? doubt it, but we'll see next. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm kelly evans. ross westgate is away. these are your headlines from around the world. president obama and congress return to work today with little progress seen on the deal to avoid the fiscal cliff while the government starts taking steps to buy more time before the u.s. hits the debt ceiling. the yen hits a two-year low against the dollar as the new...
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that would imply to me that there's something in the mix on the senate side on the fiscal cliff negotiations. what that is, we'll have to find out from the president perhaps at 5:45. >> okay, we'll go back to you for that. thanks so much for keeping us updated. the question at this point is, what impact could going over the cliff have on the u.s.'s credit rating. let's bring in sean egan from egan-jones, he's on the phone tonight. if we go over the cliff, i'm assuming the credit rating agencies, other than yours, the others ones, there's a certain amount of time during which they can review the ratings and then decide. it's not an automatic thing. >> that is correct. the first step is to put it under review. then there will be an assessment of how badly we go over the cliff and also whether there will be any reform on titlements. the deficit has been improving. the federal deficit has improved over the last couple quarters. >> so is it the case that perhaps because the economy has done better that perhaps that would save us from a credit rating downgrade even if we go over the cliff? >> i do
that would imply to me that there's something in the mix on the senate side on the fiscal cliff negotiations. what that is, we'll have to find out from the president perhaps at 5:45. >> okay, we'll go back to you for that. thanks so much for keeping us updated. the question at this point is, what impact could going over the cliff have on the u.s.'s credit rating. let's bring in sean egan from egan-jones, he's on the phone tonight. if we go over the cliff, i'm assuming the credit rating...
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first, we have to get back to the fiscal cliff impasse and the president's decision to ask the senate leaders to make a deal. here now to ace cnbc contributor, biden's chief economist and jimmy path kukis of the american enterprise institute. will we have a deal by monday. >> >> think we are. if you had asked me before the president spoke i would have said no. >> why? >> because i can see a path. if mcconnell and reid can hammer out a deal that's acceptable to both of them i believe that john boehner will let that deal come up for a vote in the house, and i believe that vote will pass in the house though probably with majority democrat. if that happens, we may well have a deal. >> you said a big f, though. if mcconnel and reid can hammer something out. the senate hasn't passed a budget in years, jared. tell me, how is harry reid going to come up with something by monday? >> well, as you've been stressing for most of the show, correct me, this is not a budget. this is a last-minute deal that's going to have a few components and i will count them on one hand that will have a tax thresho
first, we have to get back to the fiscal cliff impasse and the president's decision to ask the senate leaders to make a deal. here now to ace cnbc contributor, biden's chief economist and jimmy path kukis of the american enterprise institute. will we have a deal by monday. >> >> think we are. if you had asked me before the president spoke i would have said no. >> why? >> because i can see a path. if mcconnell and reid can hammer out a deal that's acceptable to both of...
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the fiscal cliff is going to impact our business. who knows how much we can spend to increase our business. an expansion may not be possible. the customers are so uncertain how they will spend their money that eating out may be a luxury. it hinders our expansion. this is an american issue. the american people have been on a roller coaster for the past four years. it's time for them to get on stable ground. we believe the m, the better you trade. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. whatever, have helped to contribute to the hopium. here's a big question. does the fha do what it was meant to do, help lower and middle income families achieve their dream of homeownership or does it hurt? fannie mae
the fiscal cliff is going to impact our business. who knows how much we can spend to increase our business. an expansion may not be possible. the customers are so uncertain how they will spend their money that eating out may be a luxury. it hinders our expansion. this is an american issue. the american people have been on a roller coaster for the past four years. it's time for them to get on stable ground. we believe the m, the better you trade. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive...
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once the fiscal cliff gets resolved, we think there will be more momentum on the hiring front. hiring will lead to further consumption gains and that will encourage firms to invest. that's how we get the virtuus cycle started. >> new nuclear yar is a completely different issue. the costs there could be quite considerable. i think now with the market prices that you have, you're looking at a situation where governments, just like in the uk, have to come one a support mechanism to make that economically viable. so i think that's going to be the saying across the world. that is quite expensive here in europe. i don't necessarily see europe as a whole changing its mind and going from nuclear. if you take germany, for example, why did they change their mind? obviously, there were safety concerns but probably more importantly, it was to do with the ballot box. there was quite a bit of opposition, people out on the streets protesting and in the end of the days, the politicians decided to take what i considered to be a political course rather than an economic one. >> i don't think we w
once the fiscal cliff gets resolved, we think there will be more momentum on the hiring front. hiring will lead to further consumption gains and that will encourage firms to invest. that's how we get the virtuus cycle started. >> new nuclear yar is a completely different issue. the costs there could be quite considerable. i think now with the market prices that you have, you're looking at a situation where governments, just like in the uk, have to come one a support mechanism to make that...
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the fiscal cliff. >>> the dow erases a 150 point decline on news that the house will be back in session on sunday evening. and time is rubbing out to avoid a strike at 14 major east coast ports. a work stoppage to cost the economy $1 billion a day. it's friday, december 28th, 2012. and "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. and it does feel like we're living a bit on the edge of the fiscal cliff, at least. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick is off today. our guest host this hour, ed kehone. he's the management associate portfolio manager and we are thrilled to have ed aboard for -- i think you'll be here for longer than an hour. you'll be here for the whole broadcast. >> as long as you need me. >> you're like -- how long were you at -- you were at prudential. >> it's owned by prudential, so i've been at peru don'tal for almost 15 years now. >> widely quoted. you know who has made a comeback is ralph -- >> akampora. >> i've see
the fiscal cliff. >>> the dow erases a 150 point decline on news that the house will be back in session on sunday evening. and time is rubbing out to avoid a strike at 14 major east coast ports. a work stoppage to cost the economy $1 billion a day. it's friday, december 28th, 2012. and "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. and it does feel like we're living a bit on the edge of the fiscal cliff, at least....
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about the deal regarding the fiscal cliff. and consumers on everything from cell phones to tablets could become vulnerable to cyber-crime. mcafee has released its 2013 predictions report and expect to see a rapid level of cyber-threats in the coming year. michele is the privacy officer of mcafee. good morning. >> good morning to you. >> strikes me as we all go mobile, talk about opening a new doorway for thieves and criminals to enter, what does that mean for threats in the new year? >> it's really interesting. mobile is one of the places we're seeing a lot of new attacks. there's a couple deficit vectors for the attacks. the bump and steal attack. nfc, how you do mobile wallet. crooks are able to walk through crowds and literally bump into your phone and steal information from your phone. that's one of the attacks. the other thing is your telephone has turned into a powerful computing device and like you protect your pc and other devices, you need to think about protection on the phone itself from traditional hacking exploits
about the deal regarding the fiscal cliff. and consumers on everything from cell phones to tablets could become vulnerable to cyber-crime. mcafee has released its 2013 predictions report and expect to see a rapid level of cyber-threats in the coming year. michele is the privacy officer of mcafee. good morning. >> good morning to you. >> strikes me as we all go mobile, talk about opening a new doorway for thieves and criminals to enter, what does that mean for threats in the new...
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so i think we're dealing with a slowdown, even if they have some resolution to the fiscal cliff. i think the difference between next year, 2013, and this year, is if you think about what we were dealing with coming into the year in the beginning of 2012, people are concerned about the breakup of the euro, imminent u.s. recession, they were saying, china hard landing. so when some of these things didn't happen, all we needed last year, this year, was less bad in the market. i think in 2013, we're going to need to see better economic growth as the year moves forward. because, as you say, the market is reasonably valued. but it's not cheap. and i think to jason's earlier point, there are some stocks out there that are very, very attractive. but there are some stocks that look fairly expensive, and those are the ones that are the defensive, and high-income plays today. >> chris, everyone's waiting for this asset allocation shift away from fixed income, towards equities. the retail investor, for whatever reason, for a variety of reasons that we can all list, i guess, has just been ver
so i think we're dealing with a slowdown, even if they have some resolution to the fiscal cliff. i think the difference between next year, 2013, and this year, is if you think about what we were dealing with coming into the year in the beginning of 2012, people are concerned about the breakup of the euro, imminent u.s. recession, they were saying, china hard landing. so when some of these things didn't happen, all we needed last year, this year, was less bad in the market. i think in 2013,...
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the problem is, you know, we created this fiscal cliff to make some tough decisions. and none are going to be made. not one. and so we're going to end up carrying this on now to the debt ceiling, which will be serious. i mean, that will be a serious moment. and our economy is not going to be what it could have been. i mean, we should have made all these decisions. this has been going on now for 24 months. and so this is going to be a disappointment no matter what. we'll eke by this. but then the real discussions will begin. that's why i wrote the letter yesterday to the president saying, look, you know, it would actually be really helpful to our nation and the dialogue if you would lay out what these are. lamar alexander and i put a bill in this week, raising the debt ceiling by $1 trillion with $1 trillion worth of entitlement reforms, but the president has a list that would be very helpful. but there is no list. >> let me ask you about that. because we hear a lot from the republican saying the president you need to lay out entitlement -- >> which i did last week. >>
the problem is, you know, we created this fiscal cliff to make some tough decisions. and none are going to be made. not one. and so we're going to end up carrying this on now to the debt ceiling, which will be serious. i mean, that will be a serious moment. and our economy is not going to be what it could have been. i mean, we should have made all these decisions. this has been going on now for 24 months. and so this is going to be a disappointment no matter what. we'll eke by this. but then...
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. >>> in our next hour, more nonsense. have you heard about the fiscal cliff? we go deeper into another cliff that's more of a threat to our economy. it is the container cliff. >>> i own maria's italian kitchen. we employ 400 people. the fiscal cliff is going to impact our business, who knows how much we can spend to increase our business and expansion may not be possible. the customers are so uncertain as to how they will spend their money that eating out may be considered a luxury. it really hinders our expansion possibilities. this is not a partisan issue. this is an american issue. the american people have been on a roller coaster for the past four years. it's time for them to get on stable ground. [ male announcer ] it's simple physics... a body at rest tends to stay at rest... while a body in motion tends to stay in motion. staying active can actually ease arthritis symptoms. but if you have arthritis, staying active can be difficult. prescription celebrex can help relieve arthritis pain so your body can stay in motion. because just one 200mg celebrex a d
. >>> in our next hour, more nonsense. have you heard about the fiscal cliff? we go deeper into another cliff that's more of a threat to our economy. it is the container cliff. >>> i own maria's italian kitchen. we employ 400 people. the fiscal cliff is going to impact our business, who knows how much we can spend to increase our business and expansion may not be possible. the customers are so uncertain as to how they will spend their money that eating out may be considered a...
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. >> it could be fiscal cliff-proof, the big trade you cannot avoid coming up next. >> and a montana rancher makes his voice heard on estate taxes. if we go over the cliff, he said it could put farms out of business. >> and the governor of montana will weigh in on that himself. more on that when we come back. stay tuned. [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. bob, these projections... they're... optimistic. productivity up, costs down, time to market reduced... those are good things. upstairs, they will see fantasy. not fantasy... logistics. ups came in, analyzed our supply chain, inventory systems... ups? ups. not fantasy? who would have thought? i did. we did, bob. we did. got it. . >>> another day, another step closer to the edge. talking about the fiscal cliff, of course. how are traders protecting themselves from the w
. >> it could be fiscal cliff-proof, the big trade you cannot avoid coming up next. >> and a montana rancher makes his voice heard on estate taxes. if we go over the cliff, he said it could put farms out of business. >> and the governor of montana will weigh in on that himself. more on that when we come back. stay tuned. [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced...
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the markets are looking for some direction after fiscal cliff negotiations stall. we get the word from the nyse floor, next on what you should be watching in today's session. later on, the anti-tax man himself is here to tell us about how he feels about the latest developments in the fiscal cliff negotiations. what a wild ride here we've seen all morning long. right now the dow up about 25. >>> welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm john harwood in washington. i want to bring you up to date on the latest of the talks between vice president biden and mitch mcconnell. there's some concern among democrats who have heard that the income threshold for tax rate increases may be going up to 400, 450, $500,000. a source familiar with the talks just phoned me to say the democrats are only considering that under a couple of conditions. one is that if the threshold goes up to that level, the top income tax rate would go all the way back up to the clinton era rate of 39.6%. not some mid point of 37% talked about a couple of weeks ago. secondly, that it would be accompanie
the markets are looking for some direction after fiscal cliff negotiations stall. we get the word from the nyse floor, next on what you should be watching in today's session. later on, the anti-tax man himself is here to tell us about how he feels about the latest developments in the fiscal cliff negotiations. what a wild ride here we've seen all morning long. right now the dow up about 25. >>> welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm john harwood in washington. i want to...
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same thing with the fiscal cliff. >> josh brown? >> hey, bill, i read most of your commentary and it seems to me that you tend to be a lot more positive on the prospects for things like emerging market debt. i'll curious if that extends to emerging market stocks as well and in either emerging stocks or debt should we be thinking about high-grade corporate, the bricks, not the bricks, could you give us kind of the road map of where you think best values are overseas? >> sure. i think the developing markets, the emerging market terminology is really a misnomer. many of these economies, talking about brazil, mexico and others, have half the debt that the united states has. they have a very underdeveloped consumer economy and therefore the potential to expand. they have higher reserves in dollar terms than many developed countries. and so developing, emerging, i think investors have to go where the growth is if they are looking for risk assets, whether it be in corporate bonds or in equities. and going to these countries is symptom atti
same thing with the fiscal cliff. >> josh brown? >> hey, bill, i read most of your commentary and it seems to me that you tend to be a lot more positive on the prospects for things like emerging market debt. i'll curious if that extends to emerging market stocks as well and in either emerging stocks or debt should we be thinking about high-grade corporate, the bricks, not the bricks, could you give us kind of the road map of where you think best values are overseas? >> sure. i...
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not in the health and maturity -- >> not the fiscal cliff? >> no, i'm just talking about interest rates. >> anything happening if we go through? you know it's coming up, monday is new year's eve. >> it will hurt the economy which will hurt banks. but banks have rallied, i think, mostly because of the fed. they have cash flow, they were underperforming assets. allocations were very low on financials. so we've come back. that's the first point. but i really don't see huge volume growth in the industry. if we have mid single digit revenue growth next year for all banks, that would be good. i think credit costs will keep coming down. that's what's been driving the increase in operating margins in the industry. just falling -- go when does that reverse itself? >> well, i don't think it does. we're at about 1.1% charge off the total loans. it was twice that a year ago. we have peaked up in the fours. so we're in much better shape. but remember the industry is only making 1% return on assets. most banks are 70% to 80% loan. so if you're still chargi
not in the health and maturity -- >> not the fiscal cliff? >> no, i'm just talking about interest rates. >> anything happening if we go through? you know it's coming up, monday is new year's eve. >> it will hurt the economy which will hurt banks. but banks have rallied, i think, mostly because of the fed. they have cash flow, they were underperforming assets. allocations were very low on financials. so we've come back. that's the first point. but i really don't see huge...
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cliff. >> some finger pointing. other republicans are now looking past new year's day to the next battleground. >> i will raise the debt ceiling only if we save medicare and social security and prevent this country from becoming greece. no more borrowing without addressing why we're in debt to begin with. that's where the real chance for change occurs, at the debt ceiling debate. >> we're joined now by ralph sill voe. it's christmas eve. do you have some plans to do? >> it's an austerity christmas, actually. just a couple friends getting together and a couple of friends getting together and having a nice meal. >> it is not an austerity christmas. >> it actually is. we haven't had the greatest year. everything we hoped would happen. we thought this economy was going to turn around at the summer period. >> ralph, if you take a look at the stock market concerns, the dax is up 20%. >> there will be plenty of alcohol to forget. >> do you think we're going to manage to see some type of a resolutio
cliff. >> some finger pointing. other republicans are now looking past new year's day to the next battleground. >> i will raise the debt ceiling only if we save medicare and social security and prevent this country from becoming greece. no more borrowing without addressing why we're in debt to begin with. that's where the real chance for change occurs, at the debt ceiling debate. >> we're joined now by ralph sill voe. it's christmas eve. do you have some plans to do? >>...
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>> no, i think there could be a deal that will avoid the fiscal cliff. but it will be a short-term deal, not a big deal. it will kick the can down the road on the important issues. like let's assume the president got the entire increase on the top 2%. that's only $400 billion. where is the next $800 billion going to come from? nobody's decided. those are tough issues. is it going to be meaningful entitlement reform? meaningful reform of the health care cost curve? are we going to do something about military spending? robert gates says we can take $80 billion a year out of the military budget. we're not going to do that. but are we going to do something meaningful? those are the issues. all we seem to have done, even if we pull it out in the last week, we kick the can down the road on the very important long-term issues. >> so if this is really a blown opportunity, to borrow your phrase, how does the campaign to fix the debt's mission change? or does it stay constant as we kick this and move it into the new year? >> we're constant. we're back there bangin
>> no, i think there could be a deal that will avoid the fiscal cliff. but it will be a short-term deal, not a big deal. it will kick the can down the road on the important issues. like let's assume the president got the entire increase on the top 2%. that's only $400 billion. where is the next $800 billion going to come from? nobody's decided. those are tough issues. is it going to be meaningful entitlement reform? meaningful reform of the health care cost curve? are we going to do...
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first up, the fiscal cliff just four days away. it doesn't look like anybody is rising above. at least not as far as i can tell. would it be better, i'm not sure better than what, if we just went over the cliff. michelle? >> you know what, i'm beginning to think so, tyler, based on what we said at the top of the show and the following. during this whole process i asked democrats, hey, listen. if the republicans raise taxes on everybody that you want them to, would you at least means test medicare for millionaires. the vast majority says no. i asked republicans, hey, if the democrats had an epiphany and they said we think democrat ryan is right, would you raise taxes on millionaires? they say, no. so there's no middle ground even if you get nirvana on both sides. it's ridiculous. i'm tired of it. >> clkayla? >> tyler, is the right thing to encourage washington yet again that rules and deadlines are made to be broken? at this point that's what they believe. this would be yet another example of that. i don't think that's good for the long term. >> the stupid way from my perspecti
first up, the fiscal cliff just four days away. it doesn't look like anybody is rising above. at least not as far as i can tell. would it be better, i'm not sure better than what, if we just went over the cliff. michelle? >> you know what, i'm beginning to think so, tyler, based on what we said at the top of the show and the following. during this whole process i asked democrats, hey, listen. if the republicans raise taxes on everybody that you want them to, would you at least means test...
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. >> five days away from going over that fiscal cliff, as matthew said. how should you position your portfolio? gentlemen, good morning to you both. good to see you again. >> thanks for having me. >> good morning. >> charles, everybody wants to know, if you're in the mood to buy something, do you really take a flier on congress getting it together, even if the president is coming back early from vacation? >> no. it would be a mistake to be trading your portfolio based on your outlook, this is the most widely covered story i've seen in a long time. it would be a bad idea to try to invest, making a prediction around the fiscal cliff. what you do know, we believe when this gets solved, and it will, that the stock market looks pretty cheap to us. when they get behind this, there are certain sectors that will do very, very well. >> david, is it possible, i mean, if this goes well into january, and we are down 500 points, 600 points, what do you do? >> well, i think you have to look long term, carl. that's a little bit trite, but ultimately you have to look at
. >> five days away from going over that fiscal cliff, as matthew said. how should you position your portfolio? gentlemen, good morning to you both. good to see you again. >> thanks for having me. >> good morning. >> charles, everybody wants to know, if you're in the mood to buy something, do you really take a flier on congress getting it together, even if the president is coming back early from vacation? >> no. it would be a mistake to be trading your portfolio...